2014 will be the first year of the Face the Future Conference. Along with my good friend Richard Holcomb, I am creating what will hopefully become an annual conference about all aspects of the future of humanity. The preliminary web site has just gone up and along with two videos is available to view to the right. The dates are June 4-6, 2014 and the location is Albuquerque NM. If interested in attending, please sign up on the web site. If you might be interested in sponsorship, please contact me at david@davidhoule.com. Here is the link to the just up web site: http://facethefutureconference.com/

There will be a lot more information about the Face The Future Conference in the next Newsletter.

Eight years ago I first began to write and speak about the future full time. Then, as always, I was asked about what accurate forecasts I had made. This told me of course that my legitimacy to some degree would be based upon this. So I did start to make forecasts.

The second thing I realized was that most people, and certainly people who lead institutions and companies, are interested in what will happen six months to five years out as that is what is their primary focus of leadership. What might happen in 2030 or 2040, while interesting, is more futurist "locker room talk" than valid and usable forecasts. In addition the speed of change has accelerated so much and the major variables ahead are so great that to forecast about anything past 2020 is at best educated speculation rather than probable trend forecasting.

I started getting called "the CEOs futurist" years ago because of my focus on six months to five years out [and having spoken to or advised 2,500+ CEOs, owners and C-Level executives over the past six years]. This time frame was evidently exactly what was perceived as of value to those that lead and own companies.

Since we are in a new year and it is a time of every media outlet serving up predictions and forecasts, I thought I should take a look at all the forecasts I have made since starting to do so in 2006 and be accountable.

The first column is relative to all forecasts made relative to events up to 2014 as they have either been accurate or not. The second column about the forecasts made beyond 2014 with updated comments will be in the next Newsletter.

Almost all of my forecasts about specifics are on the forecast page of my web site: http://davidhoule.com/forecasts/

Here are the forecasts I have made that can now be looked at as having accurate been or not. This is not an exercise in self-congratulation. It is an opportunity to look back not just on forecast accuracy but to analyze why and why not trends developed, things happened and perhaps what they might suggest going forward. All of the below forecasts are here: http://davidhoule.com/forecasts/

Date of Forecast
April 2006
Forecast
Oil would surpass $125 a barrel in 2008

This one I got right big time and it put me on the map to some degree. I say that with subdued glee as I took a lot of heat for this, even outright ridicule from some "energy analysts". At the time I made this, oil had climbed up to $55-60/barrel. I fully believed in the Peak Oil theory and saw an inevitable spike and said it would be two years down the road. Oil reached $147/barrel in 2008. For some intuitive reason I have been correct with oil price forecasts ever since, saying basically that the price range would be between $90-120. Looking ahead I see this as the price range for several years to come.

Date of Forecast
June 2006
Forecast
The future of newspapers in the US would be dim. National newspapers such as USA Today, the WSJ and the NYTimes would survive, as would papers under 50,000 circulation that serve smaller markets. The major metro papers would decline, collapse and many would go out of business.

This has proven to be largely true. The big guys have national scale and the small town guys truly serve their local communities. The middle has collapsed. This was an easy prediction to make in 2006. It would have been brilliant had I made it ten years before.

Date of Forecast
February 2007
Forecast
The US election of 2012 would be very significant as those that will want to take the country back would fight and lose to those that want to face the new issues of the 21st century.

Only partially right on this one. Obviously made before the candidates were even known for 2008, I assumed that 2012 would be the clear turning point for the country. Due to the small ball election strategies of both Obama and Romney, this didn't happen. I was right to the extent that the party that lost this election spent a lot of time saying they wanted to "go back" to what America used to be, particularly in the area of women's rights and birth control. This was also the year when the decriminalization of marijuana began in earnest.

Date of Forecast
June 2007
Forecast
There will an explosion of author direct to consumer books sold. Ebooks will be more than 50% of all books sold by 2020.

This was made before the Kindle was announced, which was the event that largely made this forecast accurate. Though the forecast is for 2020, I think that we are close to 50% (in the US) already. Having seen disintermediation happening everywhere, my forecast was based on that trend sweeping across all forms of content.

Date of Forecast
August 2007
Forecast
The sub-prime problem would show that the financial marketplace was now global and the problems would become global.

Well this obviously proved to be true. The problem for me was that when I made this forecast it was too late to sell all of my real estate holdings. Ouch!

Date of Forecast
September 2007
Forecast
Barack Obama would become President on 2008

I remember when I made this in answer to the question after a speech the whole room was clearly dubious. [This was pre-Iowa and any primary] I am not sure why I was so clear on this but sensed upheaval in the first presidential election of the Shift Age, and the then Senator - and fellow Chicagoan - was the outlier of the field at that time.

Date of Forecast
February 2008
Forecast
We now have "smart" phones. In the years ahead everything will become "smart": clothing, infrastructure and our homes. All will be connected.

This is now happening across many segments of society. We are only at the beginning of living in a smart environment.

Date of Forecast
April 2008
Forecast
Humanity will reach 5 billion cell phone users by early 2011.

At the time of the forecast we just crossed three billion cell phone users after having taken two years to go from two to three billion. The correct assumption was that the speed of cellular connectivity was accelerating Given that one of the three forces of the Shift Age is the Accelerating Connectedness of humanity, I have always studied this number. There are now close to 7.2 billion humans and 6.1 billion cell phones. I think this 85% ratio will now be relatively constant going forward.

Date of Forecast
July 2008
Forecast
Internet 2.0 equals video. Video will be the dominant content on the Internet

This seems to becoming true, in large part due to the fact that video is so data rich, more than any other form of content. So in terms of total data, this forecast, by most estimates I have seen over the last year seems to be at least directionally correct. A lot of this is due to the simple reality that hundreds of millions of people have hand held devices that are now viewing screens.

Date of Forecast
September 2008
Forecast
Complete genetic mapping for individuals will be available at a cost of $1000-1500 by late 2013

This forecast is not accurate due to the use of the word "complete". Significant genetic mapping is now available but complete genetic maps that are totally accurate for each individual are not fully available. This should be true by 2015.

Date of Forecast
December 2008
Forecast
There will most likely be deflation in the U.S. for the next 6-12 months

This proved to be accurate. At the time this was not a widely held view as there really hasn't been deflation in the U.S. for most of my lifetime. The difference I saw was that the global recession would lower energy costs, buying power would contract and a "thrift is the new cool" mindset would greatly lower consumer purchases.

Date of Forecast
January 2009
Forecast
Unemployment in the U.S. will top out at 9-11% in the second half of 2009

This was an accurate forecast. At the time the Fed and the Obama administration was estimating 8%. My thinking was that the downturn would be worse than expected and that this would accelerate the evisceration of the concept of "jobs" as society moves ever more toward independent contractors. Clearly around this time I was making economic forecasts, as that was the overriding issue in CEOs minds.

Date of Forecast
March 2009
Forecast
2012 could well be one of the most disruptive years in the US and in Europe in decades

This was not specifically accurate as disruption was spread out pretty evenly 2010-2012. 2012 was not the singularly disruptive year I had expected it to be. The Euro zone was in collapse 2010-2012, Arab Spring was 2011 and the presidential election was not the confrontation about big ideas I had thought it would be.

Date of Forecast
August 2009
Forecast
There will be 6 billion global cell phone users sometime in 2013

This is accurate in that there were 6 billion cell phone users in 2013, but that number was actually reached in 2012. As mentioned above, the growth curve will slow now that the 85% market penetration level has been reached.

Date of Forecast
October 2009
Forecast
The cable television subscription business will decline by 10% in terms of numbers of subscribers between 2009 and 2013

This forecast missed its mark as the number was closer to 7-8% based upon various sources. Close. One of the reasons is that the cable companies began to successfully create new models for the explosive growth in tablets in 2013, slowing the "cutting of the cord".

Date of Forecast
November 2009
Forecast
Streaming video programs will be a disruptive force to the television "business" by 2014

Totally correct. Think Netflix with "House of Cards" and "Orange is the New Black" A new phrase -"binge viewing"- came into being as consumers watched entire seasons of shows over a weekend. This was the nail in the coffin of the "appointment viewing" network model established in the 20th century. Everything on demand, all the time.

Date of Forecast
January 2010
Forecast
There will be no significant inflation outside food and energy - in the U.S. in 2010

Accurate. The Great Recession took care of inflation

Date of Forecast
July 2010
Forecast
There is and will be a new 'less is more' trend in the U.S. and the developed countries of the world. Consumers have separated "want" from "need" and will even postpone the purchase of what is "needed". Consumers will save more, pay down debt and spend less. This trend will last for several years.

This was definitely an accurate forecast. The phrase I used in speeches was "thrift is the new cool". This was the reason that economists who kept saying that the consumer would bring countries out of recession kept missing their forecasts. The consumer habits of the developed countries of the world were profoundly changed by the Great Recession. The second half of 2013 altered this forecast slightly as the top wealthy percentages of the population began to spend more due to the rapid run-up of stock markets around the world. Still, I believe that for years to come, particularly with the Millennial generation, thrift will remain cool. This is why "Sales" are much more prevalent in retail.

Date of Forecast
October 2010
Forecast
Developed countries of the world will increasingly move from an ownership to a rental society this decade.

While this is a decade long forecast, it has proven to be accurate to date. The first in a lifetime global collapse of the residential real estate market broke the belief that real estate would reliably always go up in value. In addition, there was the group of rental businesses such as Zip Car, airbnb, and the development of subscription models across all types of content. Purchase models are now being challenged by rental or subscription models. Again, this will continue more profoundly with the Millennial generation whose early adulthood has been shaped by the real estate collapse and Great Recession.

Date of Forecast
November 2010
Forecast
Due to a historic shift in the workplace, the employment rate will remain above 8% through 2012

I was slightly off on this one as the rate dropped to 7.7% by the end of 2012, which was still higher than the federal government and many economists had forecast. Again the government measurement of unemployment uses out of date metrics from the Industrial Age. Many people are technically unemployed by these dated measurements, but are surviving and thriving as independent contractors.

Date of Forecast
December 2010
Forecast
Tablet computers and powerful mobile devices will surpass PC Sales in 2012 and PC and laptops by 2014

The first part of this forecast was accurate. The second part looks like it will be accurate. One reason of course is that people buy a new smartphone every couple of years but purchase laptops less frequently. We are in the post PC era. The PC has now moved to the larger basic office hardware category that includes copier and fax machines. Mobile computing is in ascendancy.

Date of Forecast
May 2011
Forecast
The consumerization of technology will continue to increase and transform society

Totally accurate. The cutting edge of technology is now in the hand of the consumer not the institution. As in, now there is an app for that.

Date of Forecast
August 2011
Forecast
There will be a significant economic hiccup in China in the next 12 months

Generally accurate. While there was not one single hiccup, there were several: wide swings in interest rates, the short term issues of moving from a production/export economy to a consumer economy and disruption in the real estate market. The 20-year long explosive growth of the China economy, largely led by central communist planning is meeting the reality of the marketplace economy it has created as a result.

Date of Forecast
October 2012
Forecast
The "Fiscal Cliff" tax legislation on 12/31/12 will make $500,000 the income level above which taxes will be raised.

A small ball forecast. At the time of the forecast the number the Obama administration was seeking was $250,000, which I knew would be raised. It was, to $450,000, so I was not too far off. I made this forecast because many CEOs and business owners in the higher income brackets were talking about this relative to tax management.