As I wrote in the last Shift Age Newsletter:

"Eight years ago I first began to write and speak about the future full time. Then, as always, I was asked about what accurate forecasts I had made. This told me of course that my legitimacy to some degree would be based upon this. So I did start to make forecasts.

The second thing I realized was that most people, and certainly people who lead institutions and companies, are interested in what will happen six months to five years out as that is what is their primary focus of leadership. What might happen in 2030 or 2040, while interesting, is more futurist "locker room talk" than valid and usable forecasts. In addition the speed of change has accelerated so much and the major variables ahead are so great that to forecast about anything past 2020 is at best educated speculation rather than probable trend forecasting."

Below is the first of two columns looking at forecasts made about 2014 and beyond. I am proud that the majority of my forecasts seem to be either correct or are trending to be correct. That said, this is more an exercise to look at forecasts and discuss if correct why, and if not, why not.

All my forecasts are available here: http://davidhoule.com/forecasts/

Date of Forecast
July 2007

Forecast
An evolutionary new level of human consciousness will begin to occur in the 2020s

As with all forecasts in this column, the answers lie ahead of us. This is a big forecast that I see happening. The evidence since I made it six and a half years ago point to it happening in the 2020s. First humanity has become hugely more connected going from 2.5 to 6 billion cell phone users. Mobile computing is now dominant and wireless connectivity is faster that the cabled connectivity was six years ago. This means that the Concept of Place, historically a significant shaper of individual consciousness, is giving way to the Experience of Space. We now live a lot of our lives in the screen reality of the Shift Age, Cyber space, and this means that those alive today are the first iteration of humanity living in a global space.

All of this connectivity is part of an ever expanding Neurosphere that is the extension of all human thought, knowledge and interactions. It is this Neurosphere that is the technological model for this new evolutionary level of consciousness. When this does happen, simultaneous to well developed artificial intelligence and self-aware computers, the history of humanity will enter a new chapter.


Date of Forecast
October 2008

Forecast
2010-2015 will be the era of the electric car and 2010-2015 will begin the age of the hydrogen fuel cell car

The first part of this forecast seems to be coming true. Now in early 2014 most car companies have hybrid models and many have pure electric cars. Tesla is the poster company for electric cars and is now selling them in ever greater numbers. The current limitation to growth is the still significant cost differential between gas only and electric only and the lack of widely distributed charging stations. This will change in the coming years as charging stations will replace or be integrated into filling stations. Tesla just completed a Trans-American charging route and Tesla owners have driven this through this awful winter.

As for the 2015-2020 five-year period being the age of the hydrogen fuel cell car, I think will occur. Initial costs will inhibit growth. The benefit of the fuel cell car over electric car is range of driving. By 2020 these two categories of cars will represent a significant percentage of cars sold in the world.


Date of Forecast
April 2009

Forecast
Water- access to, use of, conservation and cost of- will be one of the most significant issues for humanity by 2018

This forecast is directionally correct. Lawsuits among states in the southeast and the southwest of the U.S. relative to access to water have been going on for the past few years. Historically low levels at reservoirs across the Sun belt are advance warning signs of rationing ahead. As of this writing, California is literally moving into a crisis triage with water. Globally, close to one billion people do not have access to clean water, and 85% of the world population lives in the driest half of the planet. Humanity has reached limits of growth relative to water. Major new alterations to water use lie ahead for many parts of the world. These include new rules about use, conservation and integrating grey water into zoning policies around the world.


Date of Forecast
March 2010

Forecast
We have entered a decade in medicine where our replacement parts will be superior to what we were born with.

This forecast shows early signs of becoming true though, as we are 30% into this decade. Joint replacements, bionics and the use of technology to measure one's health in an on-going basis- the quantified self- all point to this being true in the next few years.


Date of Forecast
April 2010

Forecast
Alternative and Renewable Energy will be the greatest wealth creation opportunity in human history.

Well this remains to be determined. What I do know is that to some degree some 6 billion people utilize fossil fuels as a primary source of energy and much of this will need to be replaced over the next 20 years. There has never been a time in history when so many people use a product that will be largely replaced.


Date of Forecast
September 2010

Forecast
Marijuana will be decriminalized in America by the middle of the decade

This forecast seems to be coming true. As of this writing, 20 states have legal medical marijuana and two states have legalized recreational use of marijuana. By the end of 2015 these numbers should increase, depending largely on what will happen in the fall 2014 elections. A recent Gallup poll showed that 58% of Americans approve of the legalization of marijuana, up from 12% in 1969. The states are leading the way and will continue to do so. Marijuana represents one of the last "sin taxes" after alcohol, tobacco and gambling and states are all suffering budget gaps. It is likely that 30+ states will have approved either the medical use of marijuana or recreational by the end of 2015 and when the tax, tourism and sales numbers from Washington state and Colorado, where it is fully legal, begin to become known, state politicians across the country will go for the new revenue streams. The federal government, divisive, partisan and totally bureaucratic will be the last entity to approve legality, probably by the end of this decade.


Date of Forecast
January 2011

Forecast
The bricks and mortar retail industry and therefore retail real estate, will undergo the greatest transformation in the next 10 years since the introduction of the automobile.

All indications as of early 2014 point to this being a generally accurate forecast. The screen reality of the Shift Age, with aggressively growing on-line retailers such as Amazon, have already altered the physical reality. Since this forecast, Borders has gone out of business, hundreds of big box stores have closed, perhaps thousands of strip malls are largely vacant and on-line retailing continues to grow annually by double digits.

This forecast was also predicated on the "thrift is the new cool" trend and the ownership to rental society trend. Decades ago "sales" were a few times a year. Now "sales" are constant and on-going, people don't shop unless something is on-sale.


Date of Forecast
March 2011

Forecast
Manufacturing is about to be redefined for the 21st century. Custom will replace mass. 3-D printing will start this transformation.

This seems to be coming true. This is a very big and fundamental economic change that will recast the global manufacturing landscape. It was 100 years ago that Henry Ford defined manufacturing as mass production. The definition of manufacturing is now undergoing radical change. The one-off, custom manufacturing of products and items can now been done with economics similar to those of mass production. This will have huge geo-political impact as the United States will soon become the leader in global manufacturing as technological innovation, a national strength, is leading this transformation.

3-D printing is just the tip of the iceberg. The fact that in only the last two years it has gone from being a novelty on the fringe to general acceptance at the business and consumer level points to the speed of this huge change. Manufacturing will look significantly different in 2020 than it did in 2000, or even today.


Date of Forecast
April 2011

Forecast
Europe, and specifically the Euro zone will be a no growth economic zone for the better part of the decade to 2020. Recession, deleveraging, and legacy policies of the 20th century will be the causes.

At this time, this forecast still looks accurate. Most of Europe sits with growth under 1% and with 12% unemployment. It is also bordering on deflation. In addition the amount of debt built up in failed attempts to bail out and restart the various national economies is an overhang that will absorb any growth that develops. Europe is years away from being a growth engine of the world, if then.


Date of Forecast
June 2011

Forecast
The greatest opportunity for the real estate industry for the next 15 years will not be to build new buildings but to retrofit the existing buildings in all real estate sectors.

As I wrote in "Entering the Shift Age", one of the Five Contexts of the Shift Age is Retrofitting the 20th Century. Humanity quadrupled its number in the last century and also "institutionalized" man inventions such as making the internal combustion engine equal transportation. American cities built in the 20th century – particularly suburbs- were based upon the car not the human. We have paved much of the planet. We built tens of millions of buildings that were built before there was any awareness of energy efficiency. So, for the first time humanity must retrofit – to a great degree- the built landscape of the prior century.


Date of Forecast
July 2011

Forecast
Augmented Reality will transform much of society by 2016

Well, this looks like it is coming true. The only question is around the word "much". Google Glass will come to the consumer market in 2014 and that will trigger an avalanche of wearable computing devices able to access the Internet and the Internet of Things.

We now move into the era of Big Data and we live in an environment that records- almost everything we do. The apps we use on our phones and tablets put us into some level of augmented reality. Augmented reality will be an accepted fact of everyday life by a significant percentage of the populations of developed countries by 2016. We will check back on this one then.


Date of Forecast
September 2011

Forecast
Financial and commodities markets will be highly volatile for the next few years, perhaps until 2015

Well there was volatility in equity and commodity markets 2012-2013, with a huge bounce up in equity markets. 2013 wasn't volatile as much as upwards. I do think that 2014 will be a volatile year with wide swings and it has certainly started out that way in the equity markets, though still largely a correction. One of the issues here is how much past measurements of national economic growth are valid at this time in the new century. There is a wide range of what analysts and economists think is acceptable growth in this new global era. My view is that the mid to high single digit growth years for the GDP pre-global economy decades is no longer attainable for more than a quarter. Strong annual growth is 2-3 percentage points. The markets will take time to digest that. 2014 will be volatile.


Date of Forecast
October 2011

Forecast
Big Data will create real time sociology and anthropology and will transform most of society.

This is clearly beginning to happen. The "Internet of Things" is live and scaling up at incredible speed. In 2010 humanity created 1.8 zettabytes of data. In 2015 that number will increase to 7.5 zettabytes. The smart home is now a reality. The widespread recognition of the transformation is still ahead but we are clearly moving in that direction.

All of our lives we lived in a world where radio waves, TV waves, cellular waves have been all around us but we couldn't see them, we just used these signals with our technology. Keep that image and replace "waves" with "Data". It is invisible and all around us and we access it with our technology.

I know that Big Data has become an over used buzz word by techno hipsters, but, along with the Augmented Reality to which is it connected, it really is and will be a huge transformation for how humans live and work.


Date of Forecast
January 2012

Forecast
The field of Big Data will see 1-2 million jobs created in America by 2020.

Well, obviously too soon to call but the indications are clear. Most Fortune 1,000 companies will have CDOs[Chief Data Officers] in the next few years. I have spoken to some who already do and to many companies that now have hired or appointed someone for this responsibility. I know of many new companies that are now providing Big Data services for their customers.

Artists with great computer skills are in demand as the overwhelming amount of data needs to be graphically displayed in a visual manner such that trends and dynamics will become clear.

This is one of those times when totally new and transformative technological advances will create a massive amount of jobs that didn't exist before.

Stay tuned.

I have become a contributor to Switch & Shift, one of the leading Leadership blogs since the first of the year. I am honored to become one of their "extraordinary thinkers". I will be writing a column a month for them going forward.

The links to my first two columns for Switch & Shift are to the right. I hope you both read them and watch the embedded videos. In addition are links to an audio podcast I did with Shawn Murphy, one of the partners of S&S and another link for the video interview with his partner Ted Coine.

With the speed of change ever accelerating, I have been called upon as a futurist to write and speak to Leadership and how it must change in this Transformation Decade. These columns and interviews address this important topic.