Futurists speak and write about the future. Futurists also make forecasts. Often these forecasts are cast way into the future, about things that will occur in 2030 and 2040. While that is well and good, it isn't much more than 'futurist locker room talk' as it is intellectually interesting but not applicable to CEOs, C-level executives and business owners who make up the majority of the subscribers of this newsletter.

A majority of my forecasts have been six months to five years out as that is the time frame for business leaders today. On some larger trend forecasts I go out ten years. To go beyond that timeframe puts forecasts into the category of conjecture. This is due to the reality that the speed of change has accelerated greatly, that disruptions are occurring with increasing rapidity, that there are some major variables at play and of course the almost inevitable 'black swan' events.

I think it is important for someone who makes forecasts to publish them publicly. That is why I post forecasts on my website with the date of the forecast. I seem to be one of the few futurists to do so. You can always find my forecasts, and the dates I made them, here http://davidhoule.com/forecasts/

Date of Forecast
February 2012

Forecast
Unemployment will remain at historic highs in developed countries for years as the global economy and the Flow to Global finally deconstruct formerly protected national economics. The 300 year-old concept of the "job is being completely redefined and globalized.

So far, two years in, this is accurate. Unemployment is at historic highs in Europe and high in many countries around the world. The national economies of the pre-global economy have been whacked. The concept of "the job" as measured in the Industrial Age have moved to independent contractors that are global in scope. We are at a pause between the collapse of the old employment structures and the new ones ahead.

As measured by the out of date metrics of Industrial Age structured governments, unemployment will remain high for 2-3 years. New metrics and whole new businesses will change that by 2017.


Date of Forecast
April 2012

Forecast
The greatest ever generational transfer of power and influence will occur by 2025. Boomers/Exers to Millennials.

I see this beginning to happen almost anywhere I look. First, in terms of raw numbers, the Millennial and Digital Native generations born since 1981 are larger than the Boomer generation in many countries - 3 million larger in the U.S. - so sheer numbers and the aging of the Boomers and Exers makes this look likely. Second, all the emerging communication and media technologies are immediately intuitive to the young and must be learned by the older members of society. Boomers who text largely do so because of their children. Third, the legacy thinking of the 20th century that is still largely in the minds of Boomers and Exers is collapsing and is being replaced by 21st century thinking, often created by those under 30. Fourth, the wealth of the Boomer generation as they die will pass to their children.

Of course this forecast must wait until 2025 to be fully validated, but I am confident that it will be.


Date of Forecast
June 2012

Forecast
Higher education is the next big bubble and will undergo more transformation in the next 10 years than in the last 100.

Early indications point to the accuracy of this in the two years since the forecast was made. A centuries old delivery system, largely unchanged, is delivering a product that is increasingly financially out of reach of its' customer base. Community colleges and state universities at the lower price range will thrive, as will the globally known brand institutions such as the Ivy League universities at the upper end. The middle -expensive, small colleges- will have to merge or go out of business. MOOCs [massive open on-line courses] will be transformative, allowing institutions to grant certificates rather than degrees to vastly greater numbers of students, thereby opening up quality educational content to millions of people unable to economically participate in the traditional distribution system. Tenure is a questionable practice going forward. The traditional four year model of matriculation can be collapsed to three years with the anytime layering of on-line courses allowing those that want a degree faster and cheaper to do so.

The world of higher education is changing, and changing quickly. Or at least as quickly as one of the slowest moving, most traditional institutional parts of our society can move. This is one of the reasons it will: the rest of society is changing at much faster rates than academia. It has to change to stay relevant.


Date of Forecast
August 2012

Forecast
Health care will be called health management by 2020.

In the year and a half since this forecast was made, we have seen a clear move from the "pound of cure" health care system to the "ounce of prevention" health care system of the future. Doctors getting paid to keep their patients well and the "quantified self "technology movement are clear directional sign posts.

I am very confident this forecast will be true.


Date of Forecast
November 2012

Forecast
There will be more gender equality in all areas of society in the 12 years to 2025 as there has been since 1975

I see many indicators to point to this becoming a true forecast. As I wrote in "Entering the Shift Age" at the time of this forecast, in the U.S. Europe, 60% of baccalaureate degrees granted were to women and the majority of masters and doctorate graduates are now women. Forty years ago women were in the clear minority in all three categories. Higher education has always been a good indication of success and achievement in life.

At the more macro level we keep seeing the obvious: the "first woman to ever run" the Fed, the SEC, the World Bank, GM, and countries around the world.


Date of Forecast
December 2012

Forecast
MOOCs will transform and bifurcate higher education by 2015

Well, Massive Open On-line Courses are beginning to transform higher education. I think that widespread transformation by 2015 is a bit optimistic as it is always easy to over estimate the ability of higher education to change. This will be true by 2017-18.


Date of Forecast
January 2013

Forecast
The environmental breakthrough by 2020 will be scalable Atmospheric Cleansing technology.

Well, let's all hope so! Just in time to prevent highly disruptive changes in the biosphere on the only place we have to live, Spaceship Earth. Early research is being done now. The people who can invent and implement this technology - think vacuum cleaner sucking CO2 out of the atmosphere - will become incredibly wealthy, will be deemed heroes and will win the Nobel Peace prize. That is why I have confidence this will be a true forecast. There is a species wide vested interest for this to happen.


Date of Forecast
February 2013

Forecast
After a disruptive time 2015-2017 there will be a historic bull market from 2018-2028

Obviously we will have to wait and see on this. The underlying thinking of this forecast was that the on-going collapse of legacy thinking will create tension between the old models of valuation and the newer ones in mid-decade. Old businesses will give way to new businesses that will not yet be proven. Then by the last 2-3 years of this decade an alignment of views, perceptions and dramatically increasing wealth and opportunity will, we all hope, create a long-term lift off. The historical question here is if 2029 will replicate 1929 after a decade long bull market 100 years ago.


Date of Forecast
March 2013

Forecast
The total expenditure on health care in the US in 2020 will be at or less than in 2013

Clearly we will have to wait to see if this is correct. The reasons it will be are many. Health care is the only part of the US GDP where there is little or no price transparency or competition, market dynamics that usually bring down prices, and now that these dynamics are coming to health care costs will drop. Finally, the free market of open competition is coming to health care. Another reason is the move to prevention from cure. "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" Technology is rapidly changing health care and as we have seen over the last half century, technological innovation tends to drive down costs.

The early indications are pointing to the correctness of this forecast as the percentage increase in health care costs over the last two years in the U.S. are the lowest since WWII.


Date of Forecast
April 2013

Forecast
Climate Change triggered rise in ocean levels will create great economic losses globally in the world by 2020

Again we will have to wait to see the veracity of this forecast. That said, the evidence is everywhere that this will be correct. Parts of Miami Beach and hundreds of other cities around the world now are partly under water during some high tides, flood insurance is now no longer available in many coastal communities and if it is the costs have gone up astronomically. At the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, four of the top ten global risks were climate related and many of the remaining six are somewhat connected to the massive changes now going on in the biosphere.

The value of and clichés around "beach front property" will undergo dramatic change in the next ten years.


Date of Forecast
November 2013

Forecast
Low elevation coastal cities in the U.S. such as Miami Beach will be partially or largely under water by 2020

This may sound extreme, but I only think it extreme on timing. It could be 2025, 2030 at the latest. In the last few years, parts of Norfolk, VA and nearby towns have already been evacuated due to sea level rise. Islands in the Chesapeake Bay have disappeared. If I am wrong about cities being under water I am convinced that many of the beaches will no longer exist. So beach cities and towns may not be fully under water, the beaches will be. That will be highly disruptive to their tourist-based economies.


Date of Forecast
December 2013

Forecast
In the U.S. 2012 will prove to be the high point of the Black Friday event in the physical retail space as ever more spending moves on-line.

Well, so far this has proven to be true as the Black Friday numbers of 2013 were down from 2012. Given that the economy was stronger in 2013 than 2012, this was significant. 2014 and 2015 should confirm this forecast. Black Friday - what an oddly named contrived event - if it continues to exist, will increasingly be on-line.