Futurists need to be accountable for their forecasts. Here are mine.

Coming Soon
  • 2006
  • 2007
  • 2008
  • 2009
  • 2010
  • 2011
  • 2012
  • 2013
  • 2014
  • 2015
  • 2016
  • 2017
  • 2018
  • 2019
  • 2020
  • April 2006

    Oil would surpass $125 a barrel in 2008

    Evolutionshift Blog
  • June 2006

    The future of newspapers in the US would be dim. National newspapers such as USA Today, the WSJ and the NYTimes would survive, as would the papers under 50,000circulation that serve smaller markets. The major metro papers would decline, collapse and many would go out of business

    First Business Syndicated TV program
  • February 2007

    The US election of 2012 would be very significant as those that will want to take the country back would fight and lose to those that want to face the new issues of the 21st century

    CEO business group
  • June 2007

    There will be an explosion of author direct to consumer books sold. Ebooks will be more than 50% of all books sold by 2020 [before Kindle was announced]

    Evolutionshift Blog
  • July 2007

    An evolutionary new level of human consciousness will begin to occur in the 2020s

    Speeches and in "The Shift Age" published 12/07
  • August 2007

    The sub-prime problem would show that the financial marketplace was now global and the problems would become global

    Evolutionshift Blog
  • September 2007

    Barack Obama would become president in 2008

    Corporate retreat first, then Evolutionshift Blog
  • January 2008

    2010-2015 will be the era of the electric car and 2010-2015 will begin the age of the hydrogen fuel cell car.

    Evolutionshift Blog
  • February 2008

    We now have "smart" phones. In the years ahead everything will become "smart": clothing, infrastructure and our homes. All will be connected.

    First time, CEO business group
  • April 2008

    Humanity will reach 5 billion cell phone users by early 2011

    Q&A after Keynote speech
  • July 2008

    Internet 2.0 equals video. Video will be the dominant content on the Internet.

    CEO business groups
  • September 2008

    Complete genetic mapping for individuals will be available at a cost of $1000-1500 by late 2013

    Healthcare company retreat
  • October 2008

    Thrift will be the New Cool.

    Evolutionshift Blog
  • December 2008

    There will most likely be deflation in the U.S. for the next 6-12 months

    CEO business groups and then Evolutionshift Blog
  • January 2009

    Unemployment in the U.S. will top out at 9-11%in the second half of 2009

    Evolutionshift Blog
  • March 2009

    2012 could well be on of the most disruptive years in the US and in Europe in decades

    CEO Business Group
  • April 2009

    Water- access to, use of, conservation of, and cost of- will be one of the most significant issues for humanity by 2018

    Keynote Speech to Environmental organization
  • August 2009

    There will be 6 billion global cell phone users sometime in 2013

    CEO Business group
  • October 2009

    The cable television subscription business will decline by 10% in terms of numbers of subscribers between 2009 and 2013

    CEO Business group, then Evolutionshift Blog
  • November 2009

    Streaming video programs will be a disruptive force to the television "business" by 2014

    Evolutionshift Blog
  • January 2010

    There will be no significant inflation- outside food and energy – in the U.S in 2010

    CEO Business presentation
  • March 2010

    We have entered a decade in medicine where our replacement parts will be superior to what we were born with.

    Keynote speech on healthcare
  • April 2010

    Alternative and Renewal Energy will be the greatest wealth creation opportunity in human history.

    Keynote speech in Dubai ICSC
  • July 2010

    There is and will be a new 'less is more' trend in the US and the developed countries of the world. Consumers have separated "want" from "need" and will even then postpone the purchase of what is "needed". Consumers will save more, pay down debt and spend less. This trend will last for several years and CEO presentations
  • August 2010

    The curation of content will be the next big trend on the Internet as the explosion of content continues

    CEO Business presentation
  • September 2010

    Marijuana will be decriminalized in America by the middle of the decade.

    CMA keynote presentation
  • October 2010

    Developed countries of the world will increasingly move from an ownership to a rental society this decade.

    PRSA keynote
  • November 2010

    Due to a historic shift in the workplace, the employment rate will remain above 8% through 2012

    CEO Presentation then Evolutionshift/YouTube
  • December 2010

    Tablet computers and powerful mobile devices will surpass PC sales in 2012 and PC and laptops by 2014

    People Report Conference and CEO business groups
  • January 2011

    The bricks and mortar retail industry and therefore retail real estate, will undergo the greatest transformation in the next 10 years since the introduction of the automobile

    PCMA conference
  • February 2011

    It should no longer be thought of as "the Greek debt crisis" but the possible "death rattle of the Euro

    CEO Groups then Shift Age Newsletter
  • March 2011

    Manufacturing is about to be redefined for the 21st century. Custom will replace mass. 3-D printing will start this transformation.

    CEO groups in Australia
  • April 2011

    Europe and specifically the Euro zone will be a no growth economic zone for the better part of the decade to 2020. Recession, deleveraging, and legacy policies of the 20th century will be the causes.

    NREM keynote
  • May 2011

    The consumerization of technology will continue to increase and transform society

    Keynote PDS CTO Tech conference
  • June 2011

    The greatest opportunity for the real estate industry for the next 15 years will not be to build new buildings, but to retrofit the existing existing buildings in all real estate sectors.

    SAPOA keynote Captown, SA
  • June 2011

    Social media and connective technology will dramatically alter the theater experience

    ATG Keynote, LA
  • July 2011

    Augmented Reality will transform much of society by 2016

    Keynote Tech conference, later in "Entering the Shift Age"
  • August 2011

    There will be a significant economic hiccup in China in the next 12 months

    Shift Age Newsletter
  • September 2011

    Financial and commodities markets will be highly volatile for the next few years, perhaps until 2015

    Evolutionshift blog
  • October 2011

    Big Data will create real time sociology and anthropology and will transform most of society.

    CTO conference in Copenhagen later "Entering the Shift Age"
  • November 2011

    China's economy will have great disruption by 2015-2016 as central planning meets the market economy it created.

  • January 2012

    The field of Big Data will see 1-2 million jobs created in America by 2020

    Digital Book World Keynote later "Entering the Shift Age"
  • February 2012

    Unemployment will remain at historic highs in developed countries for years as the global economy and the Flow to global finally deconstruct formerly protected national economics. The 300 year-old concept of the "job" is being completely redefined and globalized

    Vistage All-City speech, Seattle
  • April 2012

    The greatest ever generational transfer of power and influence will occur by 2025. Boomers/Exers to Millennials

    Vistage All-City, Baltimore
  • June 2012

    Higher education is the next big bubble and will undergo more transformation in the next 10 years than in the last 100.

    Fox Business News
  • August 2012

    Health care will be called health management by 2020.

    "The New Health Age: The Future of Health Care in America"
  • October 2012

    The "Fiscal Cliff" tax legislation on 12/31/12 will make $500,000 the income level above which taxes will be raised.

    Vistage All-City Minneapolis
  • November 2012

    There will be more gender equality in all areas of society in the 12 years to 2025 as there has been since 1975.

    "The Ascendancy of Women"
  • December 2012

    MOOCs will transform and bifurcate higher education by 2015

    "Entering the Shift Age – Education"
  • January 2013

    The environmental breakthrough by 2020 will be scalable Atmospheric Cleansing technology.

    "Entering the Shift Age"
  • February 2013

    After a disruptive time 2015-2017 there will be a historic bull market from 2018-2028

    "Entering the Shift Age"
  • March 2013

    The total expenditure on health care in the US in 2020 will be at or less than in 2013.

    DTC Health Conference
  • April 2013

    Climate Change triggered rise in ocean levels will create great economic losses globally in the world by 2020

    TISL Conference
  • July 2013

    Extreme weather and droughts will lead the change in consciousness about climate change starting in 2014

    Sister Cities International Conference
  • November 2013

    Low elevation coastal cities in the U.S, such as Miami Beach will be partially or largely under water by 2020

    RCAD lecture
  • December 2013

    In the U.S. 2012 will prove to be the high point of the Black Friday event in the physical retail space as ever more spending moves on-line.

    RCAD lecture
  • January 2014

    The global economy has completed its first stage of development. Long term global economic growth will be less that 3% until 2018-2019.

    CEO Group retreat
  • February 2014

    The marketing of brands is about to enter a new "golden age" due to high speed connectivity, mobile devices and the Internet of Things

    CMAA speech, then "Brand Shift"
  • April 2014

    Fresh seafood will soon be a high priced luxury as the stock is being extinguished. Replenishment of the oceans will be a global cause by 2018

    RCAD lecture
  • June 2014

    Increasing high speed wireless internet usage has been and will continue to be a strong downward pressure on inflation in developed countries.

    Illinois Bankers Conference
  • August 2014

    Water disputes will grow in 2015 and the first armed conflict over water will occur in 2016.

    Texas Council of Counties Conference
  • September 2014

    A second, more integrative stage of the global economy has begun. By 2017 this will be widely accepted.

    Evolutionshift Blog
  • October 2014

    Streaming video models will continue to disrupt legacy distribution models in 2015 and 2016 in such a way that entire business models change.

    Mpact Wealth Conference
  • December 2014

    We have entered a new era of lower cost energy. This could last for a number of years.

  • January 2015

    The price of oil for the next two years will trade largely between $45-90 a barrel.

    YouTube and Evolutionshift Blog
  • February 2015

    There will be great geo-political changes in the next 24 months due to a new lower level of oil prices.

    Evolutionshift Blog
  • March 2015

    For the next several years we will continue to live in a “hacked world”.

  • April 2015

    We have left the Knowledge Economy and Entered the Learning Economy.

    UPCEA Conference
  • May 2015

    There will be twice the amount of change 2015-2020 as there was from 2010-2015.

    Evolutionshift Blog
  • May 2015

    The Cable TV Era is Over.

    Evolutionshift Blog
  • June 2015

    A new "golden age" of marketing has begun.

    "Brand Shift"
  • July 2015

    Several Macro Forces will keep GDP and Inflation at low levels for years to come.

    Evolutionshift Blog
  • September 2015

    2015 will be the peak year of fossil fuel use and emissions.

  • October 2015

    The U.S. Automotive industry will continue to migrate from ‘gear head” Detroit to “tech” Silicon Valley.

  • November 2015

    Autonomous Automobiles will be at least 30% of all cars on the road in the U.S. By 2030.

  • December 2015

    Physical retail will continue to contract/collapse over the next two years in the U.S. In the age of on-line retail, the country is significantly overbuilt.

  • January 2016

    Marijuana legalization will dramatically move forward in 2016 and will be largely decriminalized by 2020 in the U.S.

  • February 2016

    The presidential election this year is a wealth inequality election. Populism and strong reaction against D.C. Establishment will be the determining factor.

  • March 2016

    2015-2017 will be the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. It has begun and will go into increasing decline in the next two decades.

  • April 2016

    Crew Consciousness for This Spaceship Earth will be key to fight Climate Change 2016-2030.

  • June 2016

    2016 was the last year of the two party duopoly in the U.S.

  • August 2016

    Sea Level Rise will eviscerate a trillion dollars worth of beach front real estate in the U.S. By 2037.

  • October 2016

    There will be massive geopolitical upheaval in the next five years as the end of the fossil fuel era has begun.

  • November 2016

    The amount of “cord cutting” for cable TV in the next four years will surpass the last fifteen years.

  • January 2017

    The 2017-2037 transit will change reality as much as the beginning of the Industrial Age or the Rensaisssance.

  • January 2017

    2017 will be the beginning of significant loss of human jobs to AI/Machine Learning, led by the financial sector.

  • February 2017

    Artificial Intelligence will be one of if not the most significant technologies in human history.

  • February 2017

    AI/Machine Learning will be the technology that can accelerate human evolution to a new place by 2040.

  • March 2017

    For the next few years the price of oil will largely be $40-60 a barrel.

  • May 2017

    Hundreds of billions of dollars of real estate value in the U.S. will be lost between 2020-2035 due purely to sea level rise.

  • June 2017

    Massive long term economic disruption will occur 2017-2030 as historically unprecedented creative destruction occurs in multiple industries.

  • July 2017

    The unfettered growth of social media, particularly Facebook is about to have a moment of self or governmentally imposed restrictions.

  • August 2017

    We have entered the 2nd half of The Shift Age. Change accelerates and we move from Transformation to Disruption.

  • October 2017

    There is a high possibility of a financial disruption by 2020.

  • November 2017

    By the end of 2018, Brexit will be looked at as more positive and valid than it has been.

  • December 2017

    Facebook may well be at its’ zenith. It could well have a 20% decrease in active users in the next two years.

  • January 2018

    It is time to talk about worst case scenario with Climate Change. Humanity must dramatically alter how it lives on the planet by 2030 or civilization as we know it will be gone by 2100.

  • March 2018

    In the next three years, autonomous automobiles will be a common sight in many areas of the U.S.

  • April 2018

    Sometime in the early to mid-2020s there will be a reckoning of the Great Debt Reset. The debt fueled Global Economy will have some unprecedented apocalypse.

  • May 2018

    The Millennials and the Digital Natives will be in the majority of U.S. citizens by 2020.

  • June 2018

    If the Stoneham Douglas kids are any indication of Digital Natives political involvement, then Millennials and Digital Natives will be in the majority of the electorate in the U.S. by 2024.

  • July 2018

    Between now and 2022 the second stage of Internet Disintermediation will disrupt media, wholesale, supply chains and even perhaps, money.

  • September 2018

    Additive manufacturing and the lowering of costs for space launches by SpaceX dramatically raises the possibility of a tiny colony on Mars by the end of the 2020s.

  • October 2018

    The developed countries of the world have moved into Peak Auto.

  • November 2018

    The developed countries of the world will be rapidly moving from an Ownership Economy to a Sharing/Access Economy between now and 2022.

  • December 2018

    In terms of total oil extracted for all time, we will enter peak oil in 2019. 2019-2021 will see massive write-downs in the oil and gas industries.

  • January 2019

    For at least the next three years there will always be 2-3 countries that are having massive demonstrations, with “revolution in the air”.

  • February 2019

    For the next 5 years, wealth inequality becomes ever more a focus as it will trigger cascading effects throughout society.

  • March 2019

    Innovation is becoming obsolete. In an age of disruption, innovation is only iterative change.

  • May 2019

    In the 2020s Capitalism will be reinvented to face climate change and wealth inequality.

  • July 2019

    The age of electric aviation will begin in the early 2020s and by 2025 a double-digit percentage of flights under 500 miles will become a reality.

  • September 2019

    2020 will be the first year when climate change damage globally will top $1 trillion.

  • November 2019

    The geopolitical unrest and upheavals will increase annually during the next decade, as 20th Century constructs collapse.

  • January 2020

    Trends and basic math suggest that it may well be a Democratic landslide in November.

  • February 2020

    The COVID-19 virus will have at least a $1 trillion dollar negative effort on global GDP or 1.2%.

  • March 2020

    Due to COVID-19 the Dow will drop to or below 20,000 and the global GDP will shrink by 2-3% in 2020.

  • April 2020

    We have entered the first Depression of the 21st Century.

  • May 2020

    Global and US GDP will decline by double digits 2020 over 2019 Globally down close to $10 Trillion.

  • June 2020

    The US economy will have parts that will come back by 2021 and others that will take years to come back, if then.

Act Now

David Houle has been called “the CEOs futurist, having spoken to or advised more than 4,000 CEOs in the last 15 years.

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