As I focus on macro-trends and over-arching dynamics my goal is to be directionally correct, and this page documents that I have been. I may be off on specifics in terms of scale and actual timing, but directionally I have been consistent and have gained a following because of that.
Please feel free to look at all my forecasts by year below.
A 2017 forecast that 2017-2037 transit will change reality as much as the beginning of the Industrial Revolution or the Renaissance.
A 2006 forecast that the second stage of newspaper collapse would begin and that the big national brands such as the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal would be fine as would the small-town papers but the big city newspapers would either close or become eviscerated. [This obviously has happened.]
In 2007, before the Kindle was announced a forecast that there would soon be an explosion in author direct-to-consumer book sales. [I did forecast that ultimately eBooks would make up 50% of units sales and it has never been much more than 20%, but when I made the forecast, there were no eBooks].
In 2009 a forecast that 10% of cable subscribers would “cut the cord” by 2013 [actual number was 8.5%].
In 2009 a forecast that “streaming video programs” would start to disrupt the television business by 2014.
In 2011, a forecast that, due to online sales, the bricks and mortar retail business would undergo its greatest transformation since the introduction of the automobile.
In 2011 a forecast that Big Data will create real-time sociology and anthropology and transform society.
In 2015 a forecast that the U.S. has left the Knowledge Economy and entered the Learning Economy.
In 2015 a forecast that the U.S. Automotive industry would migrate from “gear-head” Detroit to “tech” Silicon Valley.
In 2020 a forecast that, post-covid, some parts of the U.S. economy will come back quickly and others will take years to come back, if then.
The price of oil. I have been directionally correct from 2006-2021. In 2006 when the price of oil was $50-55 a barrel, I forecast that it might get up to $125 in 2008. [ It went up to $147 that year]
In 2007, before the Iowa caucuses in 2008 I forecast that Barack Obama would become the next president.
In 2011 a forecast that, starting in 2015-16 China would begin to have economic hiccups as the central planning government would come up against the market economy it had created.
In 2008 a forecast that everything would become “smart”, homes, cities, clothing, infrastructure.
In 2008 a forecast that “Internet 2.0” would be primarily video.
In 2017 a forecast that Artificial Intelligence will be one of, if not the most significant technologies in human history.
In 2009 I forecast that water -access to, cost of, conservation of – will become a significant issue for humanity by 2018.
In 2015 a forecast that Sea Level Rise and Climate Change will eviscerate one trillion dollars of real estate in the U.S. by 2037.
The US economy will have parts that will come back by 2021 and others that will take years to come back, if then.
Global and US GDP will decline by double digits 2020 over 2019 Globally down close to $10 Trillion.
We have entered the first Depression of the 21st Century.
Due to COVID-19 the Dow will drop to or below 20,000 and the global GDP will shrink by 2-3% in 2020.
The COVID-19 virus will have at least a $1 trillion dollar negative effort on global GDP or 1.2%.
Trends and basic math suggest that it may well be a Democratic landslide in November.
The geopolitical unrest and upheavals will increase annually during the next decade, as 20th Century constructs collapse.
2020 will be the first year when climate change damage globally will top $1 trillion.
The age of electric aviation will begin in the early 2020s and by 2025 a double-digit percentage of flights under 500 miles will become a reality.
In the 2020s Capitalism will be reinvented to face climate change and wealth inequality.
Innovation is becoming obsolete. In an age of disruption, innovation is only iterative change.
For the next 5 years, wealth inequality becomes ever more a focus as it will trigger cascading effects throughout society.
For at least the next three years there will always be 2-3 countries that are having massive demonstrations, with “revolution in the air”.
In terms of total oil extracted for all time, we will enter peak oil in 2019. 2019-2021 will see massive write-downs in the oil and gas industries.
The developed countries of the world will be rapidly moving from an Ownership Economy to a Sharing/Access Economy between now and 2022.
The developed countries of the world have moved into Peak Auto.
Additive manufacturing and the lowering of costs for space launches by SpaceX dramatically raises the possibility of a tiny colony on Mars by the end of the 2020s.
Between now and 2022 the second stage of Internet Disintermediation will disrupt media, wholesale, supply chains and even perhaps, money.
If the Stoneham Douglas kids are any indication of Digital Natives political involvement, then Millennials and Digital Natives will be in the majority of the electorate in the U.S. by 2024.
The Millennials and the Digital Natives will be in the majority of U.S. citizens by 2020.
Sometime in the early to mid-2020s there will be a reckoning of the Great Debt Reset. The debt fueled Global Economy will have some unprecedented apocalypse.
In the next three years, autonomous automobiles will be a common sight in many areas of the U.S.
It is time to talk about worst case scenario with Climate Change. Humanity must dramatically alter how it lives on the planet by 2030 or civilization as we know it will be gone by 2100.
Facebook may well be at its’ zenith. It could well have a 20% decrease in active users in the next two years.
By the end of 2018, Brexit will be looked at as more positive and valid than it has been.
There is a high possibility of a financial disruption by 2020.
We have entered the 2nd half of The Shift Age. Change accelerates and we move from Transformation to Disruption.
The unfettered growth of social media, particularly Facebook is about to have a moment of self or governmentally imposed restrictions.
Massive long term economic disruption will occur 2017-2030 as historically unprecedented creative destruction occurs in multiple industries.
Hundreds of billions of dollars of real estate value in the U.S. will be lost between 2020-2035 due purely to sea level rise.
For the next few years the price of oil will largely be $40-60 a barrel.
AI/Machine Learning will be the technology that can accelerate human evolution to a new place by 2040.
Artificial Intelligence will be one of if not the most significant technologies in human history.
2017 will be the beginning of significant loss of human jobs to AI/Machine Learning, led by the financial sector.
The 2017-2037 transit will change reality as much as the beginning of the Industrial Age or the Rensaisssance.
The amount of “cord cutting” for cable TV in the next four years will surpass the last fifteen years.
There will be massive geopolitical upheaval in the next five years as the end of the fossil fuel era has begun.
Sea Level Rise will eviscerate a trillion dollars worth of beach front real estate in the U.S. By 2037.
2016 was the last year of the two party duopoly in the U.S.
Crew Consciousness for This Spaceship Earth will be key to fight Climate Change 2016-2030.
2015-2017 will be the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. It has begun and will go into increasing decline in the next two decades.
The presidential election this year is a wealth inequality election. Populism and strong reaction against D.C. Establishment will be the determining factor.
Marijuana legalization will dramatically move forward in 2016 and will be largely decriminalized by 2020 in the U.S.
Physical retail will continue to contract/collapse over the next two years in the U.S. In the age of on-line retail, the country is significantly overbuilt.
Autonomous Automobiles will be at least 30% of all cars on the road in the U.S. By 2030.
The U.S. Automotive industry will continue to migrate from ‘gear head” Detroit to “tech” Silicon Valley.
2015 will be the peak year of fossil fuel use and emissions.
Several Macro Forces will keep GDP and Inflation at low levels for years to come.
A new “golden age” of marketing has begun.
The Cable TV Era is Over.
There will be twice the amount of change 2015-2020 as there was from 2010-2015.
We have left the Knowledge Economy and Entered the Learning Economy.
For the next several years we will continue to live in a “hacked world”.
There will be great geo-political changes in the next 24 months due to a new lower level of oil prices.
The price of oil for the next two years will trade largely between $45-90 a barrel.
We have entered a new era of lower cost energy. This could last for a number of years.
Streaming video models will continue to disrupt legacy distribution models in 2015 and 2016 in such a way that entire business models change.
Mpact Wealth Conference
A second, more integrative stage of the global economy has begun. By 2017 this will be widely accepted.
Water disputes will grow in 2015 and the first armed conflict over water will occur in 2016.
Texas Council of Counties Conference
Increasing high speed wireless internet usage has been and will continue to be a strong downward pressure on inflation in developed countries.
Illinois Bankers Conference
Fresh seafood will soon be a high priced luxury as the stock is being extinguished. Replenishment of the oceans will be a global cause by 2018
The marketing of brands is about to enter a new “golden age” due to high speed connectivity, mobile devices and the Internet of Things
CMAA speech, then “Brand Shift”
The global economy has completed its first stage of development. Long term global economic growth will be less that 3% until 2018-2019.
CEO Group retreat
In the U.S. 2012 will prove to be the high point of the Black Friday event in the physical retail space as ever more spending moves on-line.
Low elevation coastal cities in the U.S, such as Miami Beach will be partially or largely under water by 2020
Extreme weather and droughts will lead the change in consciousness about climate change starting in 2014
Sister Cities International Conference
Climate Change triggered rise in ocean levels will create great economic losses globally in the world by 2020
The total expenditure on health care in the US in 2020 will be at or less than in 2013.
DTC Health Conference
After a disruptive time 2015-2017 there will be a historic bull market from 2018-2028
The environmental breakthrough by 2020 will be scalable Atmospheric Cleansing technology.
MOOCs will transform and bifurcate higher education by 2015
“Entering the Shift Age – Education”
There will be more gender equality in all areas of society in the 12 years to 2025 as there has been since 1975.
The “Fiscal Cliff” tax legislation on 12/31/12 will make $500,000 the income level above which taxes will be raised.
Vistage All-City Minneapolis
Health care will be called health management by 2020.
“The New Health Age: The Future of Health Care in America”
Higher education is the next big bubble and will undergo more transformation in the next 10 years than in the last 100.
The greatest ever generational transfer of power and influence will occur by 2025. Boomers/Exers to Millennials
Vistage All-City, Baltimore
Unemployment will remain at historic highs in developed countries for years as the global economy and the Flow to global
finally deconstruct formerly protected national economics. The 300 year-old concept of the “job” is being completely redefined and globalized
Vistage All-City speech, Seattle
The field of Big Data will see 1-2 million jobs created in America by 2020
Digital Book World Keynote later “Entering the Shift Age”
China’s economy will have great disruption by 2015-2016 as central planning meets the market economy it created.
Big Data will create real time sociology and anthropology and will transform most of society.
CTO conference in Copenhagen later “Entering the Shift Age”
Financial and commodities markets will be highly volatile for the next few years, perhaps until 2015
There will be a significant economic hiccup in China in the next 12 months
Augmented Reality will transform much of society by 2016
Keynote Tech conference, later in “Entering the Shift Age”
Social media and connective technology will dramatically alter the theater experience
ATG Keynote, LA
The greatest opportunity for the real estate industry for the next 15 years will not be to build new buildings, but to retrofit the existing existing buildings in all real estate sectors.
SAPOA keynote Captown, SA
The consumerization of technology will continue to increase and transform society
Keynote PDS CTO Tech conference
Europe and specifically the Euro zone will be a no growth economic zone for the better part of the decade to 2020. Recession, deleveraging, and legacy policies of the 20th century will be the causes.
Manufacturing is about to be redefined for the 21st century. Custom will replace mass. 3-D printing will start this transformation.
CEO groups in Australia
It should no longer be thought of as “the Greek debt crisis” but the possible “death rattle of the Euro
CEO Groups then Shift Age Newsletter
The bricks and mortar retail industry and therefore retail real estate, will undergo the greatest transformation
in the next 10 years since the introduction of the automobile
Tablet computers and powerful mobile devices will surpass PC sales in 2012 and PC and laptops by 2014
People Report Conference and CEO business groups
Due to a historic shift in the workplace, the employment rate will remain above 8% through 2012
CEO Presentation then Evolutionshift/YouTube
Developed countries of the world will increasingly move from an ownership to a rental society this decade.
Marijuana will be decriminalized in America by the middle of the decade.
CMA keynote presentation
The curation of content will be the next big trend on the Internet as the explosion of content continues
CEO Business presentation
There is and will be a new ‘less is more’ trend in the US and the developed countries of the world. Consumers have separated “want” from “need” and will even then postpone the purchase of what is “needed”. Consumers will save more, pay down debt and spend less. This trend will last for several years
Oprah.com and CEO presentations
Alternative and Renewal Energy will be the greatest wealth creation opportunity in human history.
Keynote speech in Dubai ICSC
We have entered a decade in medicine where our replacement parts will be superior to what we were born with.
Keynote speech on healthcare
There will be no significant inflation- outside food and energy – in the U.S in 2010
CEO Business presentation
Streaming video programs will be a disruptive force to the television “business” by 2014
The cable television subscription business will decline by 10% in terms of numbers of subscribers between 2009 and 2013
CEO Business group, then Evolutionshift Blog
There will be 6 billion global cell phone users sometime in 2013
CEO Business group
Water- access to, use of, conservation of, and cost of- will be one of the most significant issues for humanity by 2018
Keynote Speech to Environmental organization
2012 could well be on of the most disruptive years in the US and in Europe in decades
CEO Business Group
Unemployment in the U.S. will top out at 9-11%in the second half of 2009
There will most likely be deflation in the U.S. for the next 6-12 months
CEO business groups and then Evolutionshift Blog
Thrift will be the New Cool.
Complete genetic mapping for individuals will be available at a cost of $1000-1500 by late 2013
Healthcare company retreat
Internet 2.0 equals video. Video will be the dominant content on the Internet.
CEO business groups
Humanity will reach 5 billion cell phone users by early 2011
Q&A after Keynote speech
We now have “smart” phones. In the years ahead everything will become “smart”: clothing, infrastructure and our homes. All will be connected.
First time, CEO business group
2010-2015 will be the era of the electric car and 2010-2015 will begin the age of the hydrogen fuel cell car.
Barack Obama would become president in 2008
Corporate retreat first, then Evolutionshift Blog
The sub-prime problem would show that the financial marketplace was now global and the problems would become global
An evolutionary new level of human consciousness will begin to occur in the 2020s
Speeches and in “The Shift Age” published 12/07
There will be an explosion of author direct to consumer books sold. Ebooks will be more than 50% of all books sold by 2020 [before Kindle was announced]
The US election of 2012 would be very significant as those that will want to take the country back would fight and lose to
those that want to face the new issues of the 21st century
CEO business group
The future of newspapers in the US would be dim. National newspapers such as USA Today, the WSJ and the NYTimes would survive, as would the papers under 50,000circulation that serve smaller markets. The major metro papers would decline,
collapse and many would go out of business
First Business Syndicated TV program
Oil would surpass $125 a barrel in 2008