Forecasts for 2022
Historically, January has been the month when I have been asked by various media outlets to speak about what will happen in the new year. Obviously, people think that a futurist is exactly the right person to whom that question should be asked, and I have been doing so for more than a decade. I decided to create an annual eBook to publish in early January to address this interest.
This is the second year I have published a mini-eBook with forecasts for the coming year. As readers of this space know, I am writing a series of books on the 2020s, the most disruptive decade in history The idea was to break down the decade into years and publish forecasts along the way. This led to “A Look int 2021 – Acceleration / Collapse / Rebound” last year that many of you purchased. Thank you!
As I was writing my forecasts for 2022, I looked back at this mini-eBook from last year and realized that I had been about 80% accurate. The forecasts I got wrong stemmed from the fact that I did not see January 6 happening, nor did I see the size and magnitude of the anti-vaxxer numbers.
I have just published “A Look Into 2022 – A Split Screen Year” again at the $.99 price. This, as I found out, is the price for a pack of gum, or something available at the now $1.25 stores. I intentionally set this low price as I want as many people as possible to read the book. There is so much anxiety, fear and apprehension out in the world, I want as many people as possible to have a good context as to why things are happening and to get a sense of what is ahead.
With every forecast I present rationale and also note the trends and macro-dynamics that are at cause for the forecasts. I urge you to follow-up the reading of some forecasts below with a look into the eBook for more detail.
Here are a few of the forecasts for 2022. They are just some of the forecasts and with no rationale here.
-The current 6% inflation rate will drop down to 2% by late spring in the US and the developed countries
-The equity markets will enter bear territory [I note in the book that I am NOT a market timer or active trader and suggest that while I am clear this will happen this year, it might not be until the second half of the year. Up to you individually to decide]
-The explosive growth and appreciation of crypto currencies will greatly expand in 2022
-The Workplace has changed forever, not to return to anything resembling what was in place pre-COVID
-The 2020s is the decade of increasing power to Labor and Employees. There will be much more evidence of this in 2022
-Generational Power Shift will become even more pronounced in 2022.
-The price of oil (WTI) will largely trade between $75 and $55 a barrel in 2022
-2022 will be an even bigger year for EVs than the break-out year of 2021
-The Metaverse is a big deal and that will become clear in 2022
-The evil empire formally known as Facebook is NOT the Metaverse
-Web 3 is coming and serious development and deployment will happen in 2022
-Streaming has won in both audio and video
-Main-Stream Media is failing us around the world
-Covid-19 will play a significant role in 2022, particularly in the first quarter of the year
-COP27 in Egypt should not be the total waste of time that COP26 was in Glasgow. Hopefully it will mark the end of 26 years of abject failure.
-In 2022 it will be clear that the rise of China as one of the two dominant global powers has become problematic for them.
Please remember that my role here is to be accurate with forecasts. I am not supporting anything other than that, accuracy. If I did not have a deep sense of direction, I didn’t make a forecast. If I did make a forecast, it was because I thought it would happen, not necessarily that I support the values or not.
I thank all of you that are regular readers of this column. A new year has begun, and I am excited about all the great things it will bring us and that I will make sure to share with you. Please remember that times of massive and rapid change are also therefore times of great opportunity. The big new industries of the 2030s and the technologies that will change our lives will be created in the coming years.
Look for opportunity and do not fear change, as change is the only constant in the universe. Without change there would be no time. So, resisting change will ultimately fail, and embracing change aligns one more with the universe. Start to understand and practice that in 2022.
