Future Forecasts – A Look Back at the 2008 Forecast
As a futurist, I think, speak, and write about the future. A large part of what I do is to make forecasts on the future and what might happen. This forecasting is based upon analysis of trends and the underlying forces and flows that create and shape these trends. The more specific the forecast or the further out the forecast, the higher probability of error in the forecast. When I look 5, 10 or 20 years out I look at the macro forces at play in the world to predict the overarching changes and reorganizations that will occur. Here in this column the future focus is 3 months to 3 years and is much more specific and news related.
In both the long term and short term forecasting, the value provided to the marketplace and to humanity is two fold. First it is to act as a catalyst to get people to think about the future and to do so with intelligence. Second, it is to deliver as high degree of accuracy as possible so that I can provide value to my readers, audiences and clients.
To the first point may I direct you to the video commentaries I have on my YouTube channel. Please click on the large image at the top first. Viewing this video will help you decide which of the three general buckets you are in as it pertains to viewing the future. The videos on this futurist channel define the Shift Age, the new age humanity is now entering. They deal with the major forces that are reshaping our world and the changes that will occur.
To the second point, delivering a high degree of accuracy, I consistently write about what might happen in the near future with hopes of providing that to you the reader. For example, regular readers of this column know that I have been predicting the current energy situation and $100 oil for more than two years. I know that some readers who acted on these predictions profited handsomely in the oil futures marketplace. Every January, I write my forecast for the year. My goal in delivering these forecasts to you is to provide guidance as to the coming year and the events and trends that will occur.
At the beginning of 2008 I wrote two different columns. The first was a bridge column called 2007/2008 which looked at trends and occurrences that started in 2007 and would unfold and develop in 2008. The second was the annual forecast column, “Forecast 2008”. You can certainly go back and read those columns if you like.
During the course of the next two weeks, I will revisit the forecasts made in these two columns. It is six months since I made them so it is time to look back at them through two filters. First, I want to be accountable to you on accuracy; was I right or wrong in my forecasts? Second I will expand on some of the forecasts discussing the developments that have occurred since they were made. I hope you enjoy this exercise and I welcome your comments.